Model Prediksi Kebutuhan Air Berbasis Sistem Dinamik di Kabupaten Mojokerto

Erna Tri Asmorowati, Diah Sarasanty


Mojokerto is one of the leading regions in East Java Province This of course has consequences for growth in all fields, especially industry and housing. So that it will have an influence either directly or indirectly on the growth of other supporting facilities growth in various fields leads to increased demand for water due  to climate change, several springs in Mojokerto district have decreased by 60% from their original condition. This study aims to predict future water needs with the influence of changes in population, the effect of increasing the number of industries and facilities, both commercial and non-commercial using a dynamic system so that it can be used as a basis for water resource management decisions. In analyzing a complex system that works with real conditions, it is very risky and costly, therefore we need a model that can represent the conditions of the existing system. The stages in the research are as follows: 1. Secondary data collection in the study area which includes: Population data, data on the number of public facilities, data on the number of hotel rooms, data on the number of hospital rooms, data on rice fields, data on the number of livestock, data on the area of tourism and data on the number of markets; (2) Data Analysis; (3) System Dynamic Analysis;(4)Simulation of water demand prediction in the study area;(5) Model validation with the structure validation test and the AVE and AME validation tests. The simulation model for the prediction of water demand in Mojekerto Regency based on a dynamic system is declared valid because it has fulfilled the structure test and validation test both AVE and AME From the results of the scenario simulation applied, it was able to save water by 30% for domestic water needs and 92% for non-domestic water needs. It is necessary to make a model to determine the availability of existing water resources so that a model of water resources balance in Mojokerto Regency is compiled.


System dynamic; Water prediction; Mojokerto regency; Model

Full Text:



Badan Pusat Statistik. (2018). Proyeksi Penduduk Indonesia 2015-2045.

Badan Pusat Statistik Kabupaten Mojokerto. (2020). Kabupaten Mojokerto Dalam Angka 2020.

Badan Standardisasi Nasional. (2002). Penyusunan Neraca Sumber Daya – Bagian 1: Sumber daya air spasial.

Barron, O. V., Barr, A. D., & Donn, M. J. (2013). Effect of urbanisation on the water balance of a catchment with shallow groundwater. Journal of Hydrology.

BPS. (2020). Kabupaten Mojokerto Dalam Angka 2020.

Halima Malaka, M.Yanuar J. Purwanto, A. Z. (2015). Analisis Sistem Dinamik Neraca Air Di Pulau Tidore. 8(2), 125–136.

Pemerintah Republik Indonesia, 2008. (n.d.). Peraturan Pemerintah No. 26 Tahun 2008.

Pujiraharjo A, Rachmansyah A, W. I. et al. (2014). Pengaruh Perubahan Iklim Terhadap Ketersediaan Air Baku Di Kabupaten Mojokerto. Rekayasa Sipil, 8(1), 55–64.

Purnama, S. (2013). Penggunaan model dinamik dalam penentuan prioritas konservasi air tanah di Kabupaten Bantul. Jurnal Teknik Lingkungan, 14(2), 115–120.

Qin, H., Cai, X., & Zheng, C. (2018). Water demand predictions for megacities: System dynamics modeling and implications. Water Policy, 20(1), 53–76.

Rudyanto, A., Limantara, L. M., Andawayanti, U., & Suhartanto, E. (2018). Model of water balance based on the system dynamics. International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology, 9(12), 267–276.

Sterman, J. D. (2000). Sterman-Business Dynamics - 3.pdf.

Suheri, A., Kusmana, C., Purwanto, M. Y. J., & Setiawan, Y. (2019). Model Prediksi Kebutuhan Air Bersih Berdasarkan Jumlah Penduduk di Kawasan Perkotaan Sentul City. Jurnal Teknik Sipil Dan Lingkungan, 4(3), 207–218.

Susanto, A. (2011). Model Dinamik Penyediaan Air Baku Melalui Pendekatan Water Sensitive City Di Das Ciliwung Hulu (Kasus Desa Bendungan, Kecamatan Ciawi, Kabupaten Bogor. 1–13.

Zhai, C., Zhang, H., & Zhang, X. (2009). Application Of System Dynamics In The Forecasting Water Resources Demand In Tianjin Polytechnic University. 2009 International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Computational Intelligence, AICI 2009, 1, 273–276.



  • There are currently no refbacks.

Lisensi Creative Commons
Ciptaan disebarluaskan di bawah Lisensi Creative Commons Atribusi 4.0 Internasional.